Alien Hunter Nerf?

I have an Ulti AH and in the past 20+ rifties, the highest rarity I have gotten is Legendary (and only once). This was tested by someone I was doing a rifty with, who is approx half my level and when that player got the Kill Shot, a Precursor item was dropped. I see many Prec and Ulti drops happening a lot.
Has anyone else seen this happen to them?
It appears that there is a nerf on the Alien Hunter. If not, any suggestions on how I can improve my odds of getting that Prec or Ulti loot?

I've also experienced a very noticeable decrease in drop rates, with an ulti AH on dreads. Yet, some with cursor AH are getting an ulti drop practically on a weekly basis. How does a cursor AH even get an ulti drop in the first place? May we please get a clarification on how drops work, including data on alien hunters in general? I'm just curious about the logic behind it all, and would like to know if there are any undocumented nerfs or limits put in place.
Thanks!

There has been absolutely no change to Alien Hunter.
Please see the wiki for what to expect:
https://www.spellbook.com/tib/wiki/index.php?title=Alien_Hunter

Ozymandias
There has been absolutely no change to Alien Hunter.
Please see the wiki for what to expect:
https://www.spellbook.com/tib/wiki/index.php?title=Alien_Hunter


As mentioned in the link: The Loot Drop Bonus will apply to all allies in the sector.
So, what can I do to increase my chance of a Prec or Ulti drop when I see others getting many? Keep doing more rifties?
There appears to be a nerf of higher levels vs lower levels getting kill shot. I have been consistently getting rare/ultra rares and when I didn't get the kill shot, a prec drops. What gives?

The drop rate is based on an NPC's "EP VALUE". A Dread Wyrd Seed World has the highest EP Value (38).
Your corporation's Scavenger technology increases the EP Value by 2, and an Ulti AH increases is by 3, making the maximum EP Value of any NPC 43.
An increase from 40 to 43 in EP Value (assuming that the NPC Killer's corp has Scavenger enabled) is an increase of about 7%. That means a killer with an ulti AH is 7% more likely than a killer with no AH equipped to cause any kind of a drop.
If the success rate of finding an Ulti item from a Dread Wyrd Seed World is 10% (and I don't know what it is, but 10% is a nice round number) then finding an ulti item from a Dread Wyrd Seed World with an Ulti AH is 10.7%.
Important Note: I do not know the algorithm for determining how drops work, so the above math is really for demonstration, rather than evidence that augmenting an Alien hunter is/isn't worth the cost.
It's a little better, but it's not game-changing. What is game-changing is the damage bonus and the resource drop bonus you get when killing NPCs.
What you're experiencing is natural fluctuation of success during a relatively small sample size of random events... in other words, a string of bad luck.

Derob

What you're experiencing is natural fluctuation of success during a relatively small sample size of random events... in other words, a string of bad luck.


You're suggesting that I do more rifties, have more patience? I know that I'm not the only player to have this issue. It appears to be a bit more than "bad luck". The question I have is, then, what can I do to get more Legendary drops? I've been getting uncommons/rares mostly.. a few ultra's, one leg drop. Have a bit more patience?
Because there exists nerf in other areas of the game, I'm questioning the possibility of nerf here too. Doesn't make sense that ultra rares/rares continuously drop for me at the same time seeing other players getting higher rarity drops.

As I said: There has been no change. I have no reason to tell you something other than the truth.
If it were changed, I would put it in the patch notes, edit the wiki, and tell you about it. There is no conspiracy or mystery for you to solve.
It is the EXACT SAME FORMULA that has been executing for the last 3.5 years. I just verified this in source code control.
There is no "if player is LightSide, do this, else do that" in the code, and the laws of physics are not warping around you to generate different results from anyone else.
Random is random, and no dice roll effects any other dice roll.
Please see this article for more information on the Gambler's Fallacy:

...the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

I've used an ulti ah on somewhere between 50 and 100 seeds, hives and strongholds and have yet to get above leg.
Random means random.
If you do more rifties, you will get more opportunities to get lucky, but the percentages stay the same.

This month... so, in the last 2 weeks, on Unity Server, there were 9 Ulti and 14 Prec drops. All of ulti drops come from dread seeds and all prec came from dread or boss seeds.
I think you're either overestimating the number of prec/ulti drops or underestimating the number of rift invasions completed in a day.

Thank you Ozy and others. I suppose that the Ulti AH is more about Farming than getting drops.
Here's some questions that I still have:
Why does a Prec AH get Ulti drops? Why is it that when I didn't get the kill shot, and a lower level Ulti AH did get it, it got a Prec drop?
I suppose that I should just enjoy the game and have fun and not worry about what others are getting...